Geo-politics and Analytics: UK Election Shows Continuing Divide

This week’s election in the UK will surely go down as one of the most poorly predicted elections in modern history. With the Conservatives securing a full majority as the results are tallied, pollsters and pundits were left scratching their heads over having forecast one of the closest elections in over 70 years and near possible constitutional crisis.

Prime Minister Cameron Baffled Pollsters, Capturing the Majority (Photo: BBC)

With advanced predictive analytics one would think that the world of geo-politics would be an easy use case for pollsters leveraging current technology.  Given this week’s misfire in the UK, it appears not much has changed since 2012 when the US election likewise had two very different forecasts with equal certainty.  One thing is certain: advanced predictive analytics can easily model weather patters, consumer behavior and even election outcomes based on sentiment and pattern analysis.  At least when properly leveraged.


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